Author(s): Larion Krivtsov
Mentor(s): Patrick Ukata, Global Affairs
Abstract
Artificial intelligence (AI) has rapidly evolved from a technological innovation into a central force reshaping global geopolitics. As states race to harness AI’s economic and strategic potential, the technology has become a defining factor in international competition, cooperation, and governance. This paper examines how AI is transforming global power dynamics by shifting influence toward actors with advanced computational capacity, vast data resources, and strong innovation ecosystems. The analysis argues that AI functions as a dual-use geopolitical lever: it intensifies strategic rivalries among major powers while simultaneously creating new opportunities for collective regulation and shared ethical standards.
AI is altering the nature of conflict by enabling autonomous weapons systems, accelerating cyber operations, and enhancing disinformation campaigns that blur traditional distinctions between war and peace. These developments challenge established security doctrines and create new vulnerabilities that demand coordinated international responses. At the same time, AI exposes significant gaps in global governance, raising questions about accountability, transparency, surveillance, and human rights that existing institutions struggle to address.
Using a qualitative synthesis of contemporary scholarship, the paper maps AI’s geopolitical effects across four domains: great-power competition, military and security transformation, global governance architectures, and regional ethical perspectives. The findings show that while AI amplifies inequalities and fuels geopolitical tension, it also offers pathways for new regulatory frameworks and multilateral cooperation.
Ultimately, the paper contends that the geopolitical future of AI will depend not on technological inevitability but on the ethical, political, and institutional choices made by human actors. Ensuring that AI advances global stability and human well-being will require governance models that balance innovation, security, and shared responsibility.
Audio Transcript
Hello,
In the early twenty-first century, artificial intelligence has emerged not simply as a technological breakthrough but as a transformative geopolitical force—one that is redefining how power is created, exercised, and contested on the global stage. What once belonged to research labs and commercial enterprises has now become a central pillar of national strategy. Major powers—the United States, China, and the European Union—treat AI with the same seriousness that past generations reserved for nuclear technology. It’s entirely accurate to say that AI has emerged as a powerful and influential tool in shaping global political dynamics.
This transformation raises a key question: How does AI reshape global geopolitics by altering power relations, national security, and international governance? The answer, as this research argues, lies in understanding AI as a dual-use geopolitical lever. On one hand, AI fuels strategic rivalries, widening technological inequalities, and destabilizing traditional hierarchies. On the other, it creates unprecedented opportunities for shared regulation, ethical standards, and cooperative global frameworks.
AI is redistributing power in three critical ways.
First, it rewards states and corporations with data, computational capacity, and technological expertise—not those with traditional industrial strength. The result is a new form of digital stratification that determines who leads, who follows, and who risks being left behind.
Second, AI is redefining conflict itself. Autonomous weapons systems, cyberattacks powered by machine learning, and sophisticated disinformation campaigns blur the boundaries between war and peace. Deterrence, defense, and security doctrines are being rewritten in real time.
Third, AI challenges the foundations of global governance. It raises profound questions about accountability, transparency, and ethics—questions no nation can resolve alone. International law, built for an earlier technological era, must now confront algorithms that make decisions far faster than traditional institutions can respond.
But this story is not only about rivalry. It is also about responsibility. AI forces us to reconsider what human agency means in an age of automated decision-making. It compels us to think about who benefits from technology and who might be harmed by it. And it reminds us that the future of global stability will depend not on machines themselves, but on human choices—ethical, political, and institutional.
If nations view AI only as a weapon of competition, we risk repeating the mistakes of past arms races. But if we recognize its dual-use nature—its capacity to inspire both competition and cooperation—we can harness AI to strengthen global governance, promote shared security, and advance human flourishing.
In the end, the geopolitical future of artificial intelligence will be determined not by the power of our algorithms, but by the wisdom of our decisions. Let us choose a future where AI serves humanity—rather than one where humanity becomes subordinate to its own creations.
Thank you for your attention.
One reply on “Artificial Influence: How Artificial Intelligence (AI) Shapes Global Geopolitics”
Hi, amazing project!!!
My question is, could shared global crises (like climate change or pandemics) incentivize cooperative AI development, despite geopolitical tensions?